Heard That Song Before

How predictable are you?

In asking that, I will stipulate that the question can cut two ways: one person's predictability is another's consistency. I ask the question in the spirit of examining whether talk radio is superserving its core constituency or short-changing itself in a market where audience tastes are rapidly changing.

I just turned on the radio and tuned up and down the AM dial to see what everyone was doing. The political shows were what I expected: Trump supporters saying what Trump supporters say, local and national shows alike. Two syndicated sports shows to which I hadn't listened in a long time were doing the same schtick they were doing the last time I listened, and a year ago, and five years ago. I didn't have to listen, because I knew what I was going to get. Nothing special, nothing different, no surprises.

Talk radio is, in a way, performing like a chain restaurant. You go to a chain restaurant, you know exactly what the menu is going to have. You know the quality isn't going to be all that spectacular, but it's familiar. It's what you settle on when you don't know what else is around and you're not that interested in investing the time and effort to find out.

But we live in a Yelp world. Finding out what else is out there has never been easier, and the effect on chain restaurants has been clear: Business is down. The familiar has become predictable, and predictable is not good enough. The other side to that involves the failure of changes chains like Applebee's and Chili's made to try to keep people coming, menu additions that are now being taken away as failed experiments. That's the argument for keeping things predictable; you don't go to Olive Garden for sushi, the theory goes, and you don't go to AM talk radio for something other than an old, angry guy spouting conservative politics.

That was all well and good until there was a choice, and I don't mean some other AM station trying liberal talk. I don't mean politics at all. I mean that with streaming of new shows and out-of-market (and out-of-country) stations, and now with podcasts, listeners have a choice. If they want talk radio but don't want the same-old, they don't have to listen to it. There's always been public radio, but now there's an avalanche of content, and it covers practically every possible interest from every possible angle. Politics? Right, left, center, extreme, traditional, all available. Topics? Anything, and I do mean anything -- you name it, there's a show for it. Sports? Every team, every college program, even high school sports, all a click away, plus all the "hot takes" you can handle, no longer the exclusive province of sports radio or even social media.

Your conundrum: Is being predictable an asset or liability for talk radio? Yes, you're doing "more of what they came for," but is that an appeal to a rapidly narrowing audience? If I know what the hosts on your station are going to say before I tune in, am I going to think, "yeah, I want to hear that, because it aligns with my political views," or am I going to think, "I don't need this; I'm gonna find a show on some other topic and let them surprise me"? Or neither -- will I just think, nah, I'll just listen to music? I don't know the answer, but it would be an interesting thing to research, not asking listeners what they want (they will often SAY they want variety, only to contradict that with their actions) so much as tracking what they listen to and for how long. (Hey, Nielsen, meter that.)

The reason this is important to determine is obvious: It's about the future of what we do. If same-as-ever keeps those declining numbers of P1s listening but isn't growing the audience, that's trouble. If same-as-ever still cumes but sends time spent listening into a tailspin (tune in, listen 20 seconds, find it totally predictable, hit the scan button), that's trouble. Or maybe it's the niche talk radio can do that sets it apart from other media -- play to the stereotype, give the people "what they want," and leave the mop-up to future radio management when these P1s die off. I'd prefer trying to be more creative than that and embracing unpredictability and -- here's a wild concept -- fun. The more people feel like they need to check in because, while they don't know what you'll say or do, they know it'll be entertaining and worth a listen, the more territory talk radio can claim in the future media landscape. Now, if we can only convince management that it's worth the occasional complaint call from the angry political listener crowd....

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One thing that's both predictable (as in reliable) and unpredictable (as in you never know what you're going to get) is All Access News-Talk-Sports' Talk Topics, with all sorts of stuff to talk about on the radio or on a podcast or anywhere, and it's free. Find it by clicking here and/or by following the Talk Topics Twitter feed at @talktopics with every story individually linked to the appropriate item. And there's the Podcasting section at AllAccess.com/podcasts. Wait, that "never know what you're going to get"... What if you get a box that's all the same chocolate type? You DO know what you're going to get. Forrest Gump was full of it.

And make sure you're subscribed to Today's Talk, the daily email newsletter with the top news stories in News, Talk, and Sports radio and podcasting, plus my PerryVision! video commentaries. You can check off the appropriate boxes in your All Access account profile's Format Preferences and Email Preferences sections if you're not already getting it.

Listen to my daily podcast, "The Evening Bulletin with Perry Michael Simon," a short and, I hope, amusing trifle posting every weekday. Hey, it's now on iHeartRadio! It's also at Apple Podcasts/iTunes (please leave reviews on iTunes!), Google Play Music, TuneIn, Stitcher, and RadioPublic; here's the RSS feed and, if you just want to listen on the web, you can go here or here.

You can follow my personal Twitter account at @pmsimon, and my Instagram account (same handle, @pmsimon) as well. And you can find me on Facebook (where I also do some live videos about radio) at www.facebook.com/pmsimon, and at pmsimon.com.

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I'd put a joke down here, but that would be predictable. If it was unfunny, it would be doubly predictable. Talk to you next week (and earlier on video)....

Perry Michael Simon
Vice President/Editor, News-Talk-Sports and Podcast
AllAccess.com
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