The Movement Abides

Convention takeaways are an interesting thing. I try not to make lists of takeaways from conventions, because a) most radio conventions don't really generate that kind of reaction, b) everyone else is doing it, and c) what you take away from an event often depends on your personal perspective, and mine tends to be "I heard all of this a decade or two ago." That last one gets in the way of any upbeat, actionable takeaways.

An exception to the standard radio convention -- perhaps because it's not, technically speaking, a radio convention -- is Podcast Movement, which has the benefit of being about a growing medium populated by creative, enthusiastic people. The fact that podcasting is still feeling its way towards being a full-fledged, independent business has a lot to do with that. Podcasting isn't hide-bound by a century of "we've always done it this way." It's all being figured out on the fly. It's exciting to be part of it.

Yet while I was encouraged by the day-long radio track that Jacobs Media held, and the attendance for it (the room was generally packed throughout), and the informative panels, I was left wondering when the podcasting industry itself, such as it is, will figure it all out. While radio, a decade into podcasting, is still tentatively dipping its collective toe in the water, there's still no unified theory of how to raise podcasting from its present limited-revenue base to something a lot closer to broadcast radio's cash-generating power. The much-vaunted transition from direct-response to brand advertising is still a transition, maybe, and how clients are buying podcasts is still a work in progress. Measurement is also a work in progress. Everything about monetization is still a work in progress. This is not as much a concern for individual podcasters who aren't expecting to reap the big bucks as it is for those who are hoping that podcasting (and streaming) will conveniently replace or, at least, largely supplant the present AM/FM model as a career option. We ain't there. Not at a projected $220 million this year, which is an 85% increase from last year but is 85% of relatively little. What's radio at, $13 or $14 billion, with a "b"? That's a long way to go.

The talk I heard about that from people I trust weren't all that promising yet. Dynamic ad insertion? Most podcast listening comes in the very first days of a show's availability; the numbers aren't there for archive listening. Patreon? How many shows can survive with a tin cup on the sidewalk, and how many shows are people willing to pay to support? Subscription? Same thing, especially regarding the limits of people's willingness to pay -- after you're done with paying for Netflix, Amazon Prime, Hulu, and/or HBO Now for TV, how deep are you gonna dig to buy podcasts? Is there even a place for standard pre-recorded pre-produced highly-skippable ads on podcasts when we've already committed to the superiority of host-read commercials? And I haven't even gotten to the issues of discovery, curation, and flat-out ease of use (or lack thereof) for anyone who isn't technically adept or has a device other than an iPhone.

Still, if you ask me about takeaways, it's not all doom. In fact, I came away more positive about podcasting than ever, because of a couple of things. One is that it remains an amazing option for creative people to be creative, an audio art form unlike radio, open to anyone who wants to do it. Even without a clear path to monetization, incredibly talented newcomers are launching great content every single day. There are no rules -- program length, schedule, topic, production elements, formatics, everything is open for someone to come in and do what he or she wants. If you have a single creative bone in your body, podcasting is the place to be. And if you aspire to doing talk radio, you can ignore the radio gatekeepers and do what you want, be available to an international audience, and experiment to your heart's content. This has not changed since the beginning of podcasting, and it's wonderful.

Second, as for monetization... hey, radio people, this is your turf. You've been monetizing spoken word content since Marconi. Radio people have been figuring out ways to make money delivering results way beyond any CPM calculation forever. If anyone is going to hit upon the magic formula for advertising support of the new(er) medium, radio people can do it. That crowded room at the Jacobs radio track showed signs that radio people might just be realizing this now.

Once again, then, I left Podcast Movement feeling positive about the future, even if I still have questions about how it's going to get from almost-a-business to a real, multi-billion-dollar industry. I'm not sure I'm going to like it if it DOES get there, though. In 2017, podcasting is still in the Wild West phase, and that's the most fun part of any developing business. You can break the rules. No, there ARE no rules. That should excite you.

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Schedule: Monday's Labor Day in the U.S., so All Access will be closed and Talk Topics will post a few things that afternoon. Next week, I'll be in Austin for the NAB and RAB's Radio Show, but while the topics and news schedule will be a little off, I should be able to update things fairly regularly, and the podcast WILL be posting every weekday. See you in Austin.

Perry Michael Simon
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